"We should not take too much comfort, or indulge in too much angst, over a particular set of model runs".
The storm, which followed Irma through the tropical Atlantic, was expected to spin back on itself, leaving some experts to believe the cooler water it had turned up previously would keep it weak for the short term, even dipping below hurricane-force over the next couple of days.
"On the forecast track, the centre of Jose will remain well to the east-northeast of the Bahamas through Wednesday", the NHC said. (A Category 1 hurricane has maximum sustained winds between 74 and 95 miles per hour). "None of the computer models, at this point, have it headed toward our state".
The latest European model shows Jose circling around the west Atlantic for much of the upcoming week. There is some additional weakening possible in the coming days, and Jose could become to a tropical storm on Tuesday. Still, the cone of uncertainty comes uncomfortably close, within 200 miles of Florida and 50 miles from the Bahamas.
Have a family discussion about what you will do, where you will go and how you will communicate with each other when a storm threatens. "Jose was nearly up to a Cat 5 at one point, so that brought up some pretty cool water and I'm all for storms double backing and weakening". But with Harvey and Irma, it has now experienced two Category 4 landfalls in 16 days.
Connecticut's weather next Monday through Wednesday is largely dependent on the track of Hurricane Jose.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that unseasonably warm ocean temperatures and a no-show from El Niño would contribute to a potentially "extremely active" hurricane season. We'll have to wait and see what's in store as we move past the peak of the hurricane season.
While hurricanes doing clockwise loops are rare, they are not unheard of.